Last Saturday night we get a much better idea of which movie is really on top in Oscars’ wild confusing best picture.
Perhaps.
Or so maybe we don’t know anything at all thanks to Recent rebellion Over “Emilia Pérez” star Karla Sofía Gascón’s former racist and anti -Muslim tweets.
When he entered the last month of the Oscar campaign, a remarkable six different films seemed to have a chance to win the best picture: “Anora”, “The brutalist”, “A complete unknown”. “And usually a weekend like the one who comes up would help clear up the muddy of prices.
Friday will bring the twice delayed Critics Choice Awards, which has predicted the Oscar winner over the past two years in a row and for the last 15 years. And Saturday will have simultaneous ceremonies for Director Guild Awards, which has matched Oscar for best director 22 times over the past 25 years and matched the best picture 18 times in that stretch, and Producers Guild Awards, the most reliable Oscar predictor because it is The only other prize that uses the same ranked electoral voting system as the academy in the best image category.
For weeks I have had the same answer to people who ask me what will win the best picture: “Ask me on February 9th.” Or alternately: “Whatever wins The Producers Guild.”
But pine over Gascon’s old tweets mainly destroyed her best actress campaign and threatens Hurt seriously the chance of “Emilia Pérez” To win the best picture, where it was considered something of a narrow favorite a week ago.
And that is the problem with this weekend’s price exhibitions, since none of the harmful information about Gascón was known when the majority of the votes for the upcoming show were made.
The critic’s electoral vote ended on January 10 for what was originally a January 12 -ceremony, before the show was postponed because of the Los Angeles fire fires. Producer’s Guild vote ended on January 30, the day when tweets hit the fan. The Director Guild vote continued for a week after the revelations, but it had already been going on for three weeks of them.
So if “Emilia Pérez” has big winnings on any of these shows, it will depend on voices thrown before the film and its star became a great story. And it won’t tell you so much about how it will do when the Oscar voters start voting on Wednesday, February 11. It is obvious that some people who would have voted for the film in mid -January will stay away now, but how many will remain a big question mark.
Perhaps 20% of the academy, based abroad, could gather behind the French film that threatened to torpedo on of its star’s social media history. But at a split time when the academy wants to send a message about its values with its choice of best image, a voice for “Emilia Pérez” will no longer feel like a progressive alternative – although it felt so for critics, directors or directors or producers last week or last month.
On the other hand, if “Emilia” is turned off at DGA and because of and just wins, says, says, best supportive actress and best original song at Critics Choice Awards, which can very well seal their fate at Oscars.
And if that happens, Producer’s Guild winner will really become a legitimate Frontrunner -especially if it is an indie title like “The Brutalist” or “Anora”, which would not necessarily be expected to be the favorite of the producers. (When “Coda” won the Producer Guild Award three years ago, there was quite a lot of playing for larger budget rivals like “The Power of Dog”, “Dune” and “West Side Story.”)
But in a strange year that has become stranger as the Oscar votes approach, a phrase that Legitimate Frontrunner Simply does not mean as much as it can have under different circumstances. A hard to figure movies has seen it, and Karla Sofía Gascón’s Social-Media account has put an exclamation point on it.
