Nomination voting is from January 8–12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11–18, 2025. And finally, the 97th The Oscars The telecast will air on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7pm ET/ 4pm PT. We’ll be updating our picks throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of ours 2025 Oscar’s predictions.
Race condition
The same can be said for almost every other breed of actor, but wow does the suggested thing Best Supporting Actor the lineup looks a lot different than it did at the peak of the awards season. The only constant has been that “A Real Pain” star Kieran Culkin was expected to win.
In addition to taking home the majority of critics awards, the Emmy winner took home Golden Globe for Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picturekicking off the televised portion of his Oscar run.
The actors he has been nominated against the most are Yura Borisov (“Anora”) and Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), whose films both have a better chance at Best Picture (for example, their films are nominated for Best ensemble at SAGwhile “A Real Pain” is not.)
“The Brutalist” star Guy Pearce would be the next closest to be nominated, but the thing that affects him is that he did not receive a SAG Award nomination, and SAG is the group that has the largest overlap in voters with the acting branch, which decides the Oscar nominations. Still, a rising tide lifts all ships, and the boost star Adrien Brody and director Brady Corbet got by winning at the Golden Globes, a televised awards show, should move the needle for Pearce enough to make the final cut.
It is the fifth slot that has proven to be the most difficult to predict. So far, it seems like Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) and Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) may have reached too early, but the Academy has had diversity in mind in recent years, and they were the two most viable contenders for color, with Maclin having the edge due to “Sing Sing” being more of a Best Picture contender. But A24 film failing to win over SAG, despite being all about how the craft of acting can change lives, was taken by many as evidence that its awards prospects have diminished.
“Wicked” and “Conclave” are the other two best ensemble nominees at the SAG Awards that feature supporting actor nominees Jonathan Bailey and Stanley Tucci, respectively, with the former also receiving a best supporting actor nomination from the guild award, but couple actors have been recognized almost nowhere else.
Since nothing is set in stone, the current consensus is that “The Apprentice” star Jeremy Strong will take the fifth spot, after being nominated for SAG and BAFTA Awards recently. The film hasn’t done super well with American audiences, but if the aftermath of “Succession” is strong enough to propel Culkin to the top of the Best Supporting Actor race, why not count on Strong’s strong take on Roy Cohn to make the cut.
Competitors are listed in alphabetical order below.
Predecessors:
Yura Borisov (“Anora”)
Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”)
Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
Contenders:
Jonathan Bailey (“Wicked”)
Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“The Fire Inside”)
Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”)
Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”)
John Magaro (“September 5th”)
Josh O’Connor (“Challenger”)
Adam Pearson (“A Different Man”)
Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”)
Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”)
