Nomination voting is from January 8-17, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 23, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th The Oscars The telecast will air on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7pm ET/ 4pm PT. We’ll be updating our picks throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of ours 2025 Oscar’s predictions.
Race condition
The one who is 100 percent sure of himself Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination predictions lie. The predecessors have been far too ubiquitous to provide any certainty. Sometimes “Emilia Pérez” star Selena Gomez makes the cut, sometimes she doesn’t. Just when things finally look up for Monica Barbaro, one earns SAG Award nomination for her performance as Joan Baez in “A Complete Unknown,” she fails BAFTA Awardsalthough that group has six nomination slots.
Currently, it feels almost certain that the race is between two musical stars: Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) and Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), with Saldaña moving on after winning Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Movie on Golden Globes.
Gomez is by no means a critics’ pick, and is weighed down by not getting a solo SAG Award nomination, but “Emilia Pérez” has been on the fast track to tying — and possibly breaking — the record for Oscar nominations. When the voters love you film this much, across branches, it becomes much easier to watch them vote for all the possible nominees from the film than to worry about spreading the wealth. Even Adriana Paz has a chance, given how Netflix has excelled at securing unexpected nominations.
Interestingly, the last time a movie had more than one Best Supporting Actress nomination was when Jamie Lee Curtis won an Oscar for “Everything Everywhere at Once” 2023. Now the Oscar winner is back with a vengeance, earning SAG and BAFTA awards for his supporting turn in Pamela Anderson’s comeback vehicle “The Last Showgirl.” The upside is that this role is actually more consequential than the one that won her an Oscar, but the downside is that the film isn’t up for anything else. It would really be another Oscar nomination based on her being an expert campaign more than people paying close attention to the work. And this is not to say that she is bad in any of the films she has been in consideration for. It’s more like her roles were so far down the call sheet that you could almost get away with calling them cameos.
“Conclave” star Isabella Rossellini is in a similar boat, where her reputation precedes her more than her eight minutes of screen time in the film does. It was her and “The Brutalist” star Felicity Jones who made the BAFTA list, but were snubbed by the SAG nominations for actress in a supporting role in a motion picture. While Rossellini is still technically a SAG Award nominee via “Conclave” earning a Best Ensemble nomination, she has the edge between the two — but the guild’s love for “A Complete Unknown” was too overwhelming not to believe that Barbaro might have the best shot at fifth place when Oscar nominations are announced.
Competitors are listed in alphabetical order below.
Predecessors:
Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“The Last Showgirl”)
Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”)
Ariana Grande (“Wicked”)
Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
Contenders:
Michele Austin (“Hard Truths”)
Joan Chen (“Diddy”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”)
Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”)
Carol Kane (“Between the Temples”)
Adriana Paz (“Emilia Pérez”)
Margaret Qualley (“The Substance”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”)
Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”)
